Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast70+ 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMay 13, 26, 11:17 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketWill NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a moon base by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsHow much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)
Manifold MarketsRules
Spotify Market: https://manifold.markets/Base/who-will-be-my-most-streamed-spotif-z5QI2QIUtN
- I will do no trades.
Open markets
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $90.8K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-1.0pt49%
- $2B43%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $749.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Total Vol
- $93.1K
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 more outcomes
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- Before 203544.2%
- 2035 - 204524.1%
- 2045 - 206020.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5K
- 24h Vol
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get??
- Manifold Markets prices 70+ at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get? resolve?
- How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Spotify Market: https://manifold.markets/Base/who-will-be-my-most-streamed-spotif-z5QI2QIUtN