Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMenlo Park, CA 27.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 26, 6:30 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).
Open markets
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $90.8K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-1.0pt49%
- $2B43%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $749.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.1K
- 24h Vol
- $453.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Total Vol
- $93.1K
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 more outcomes
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Where will I live in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Menlo Park, CA at 28% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Where will I live in October 2026? resolve?
- Where will I live in October 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Where will I live in October 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.