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Where will I live in October 2026?

baseOne-OffAI Politics Geopolitics2mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Berkeley, CA 15.3%+0.2%

Leader of 8 outcomes

Forecasters

10

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale

Apr 24, 26, 6:30 PMOct 1, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Berkeley, CA15%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.

The market resolves equally among tied cities.
For context, this definition would have resolved "Menlo Park, CA" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "Stanford, CA" for most of my college months.
I strongly expect it to resolve "Berkeley, CA" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St.

Volume trend

$50

Jul 134d of dataJul 20

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Rules

Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.

The market resolves equally among tied cities.
For context, this definition would have resolved "Menlo Park, CA" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "Stanford, CA" for most of my college months.
I strongly expect it to resolve "Berkeley, CA" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St.