Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 25, 1:36 AM UTCJan 2, 36, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a moon base by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce or start building a dual-use research station by end of 2027?
FutuurWill India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Moon base by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRules
NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence.
- The program includes plans for the Lunar Gateway, a space station in lunar orbit expected to be operational by the mid-2020s, which would serve as a staging point for lunar surface missions.
- Currently, NASA has not announced specific plans or timelines for constructing a permanent moon base before 2036.
- The agency's focus is on initial crewed landings and establishing sustainable operations on the lunar surface.
- In contrast, China and Russia have announced plans for their International Lunar Research Station, with construction scheduled to begin around 2026 and operations expected by 2036.
- Resolution Criteria
