Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 25, 1:36 AM UTCJan 2, 36, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a moon base by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce or start building a dual-use research station by end of 2027?
FutuurWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRules
NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence.
- The program includes plans for the Lunar Gateway, a space station in lunar orbit expected to be operational by the mid-2020s, which would serve as a staging point for lunar surface missions.
- Currently, NASA has not announced specific plans or timelines for constructing a permanent moon base before 2036.
- The agency's focus is on initial crewed landings and establishing sustainable operations on the lunar surface.
- In contrast, China and Russia have announced plans for their International Lunar Research Station, with construction scheduled to begin around 2026 and operations expected by 2036.
- Resolution Criteria
Open markets
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027-0.5pt53.9%
- June 30, 202736.5%
- December 31, 20268.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
- 24h Vol
- $4.8K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B50%
- $2B43%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $749.2K
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 more outcomes
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- Before 203544.2%
- 2035 - 204524.1%
- 2045 - 206020.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5K
- 24h Vol
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? resolve?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2036.
- How is Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence.