Current community forecast
No 62.3%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 23, 3:22 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
To count as permanently inhabited, the base must meet the following conditions:
- It is continuously inhabited for at least a year.
- The period of continuous habitation must start before 2040, but it still counts even if it has not been a full year yet on Jan 1, 2040.
- There are no plans to leave the base uninhabited at any time within 10 years of the beginning of the period of continuous habitation.
- If the base is somehow destroyed before 2040 or the plan to continuously inhabit it for at least 10 years doesn't work out, it still counts as long as it meets to two conditions.
- See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-there-be-a-moon-base-by-2040
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040? resolve?
- Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To count as permanently inhabited, the base must meet the following conditions:
