Current implied probability
OpenAI 35%-3.0ptLeader of 20 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$11.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
12.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+25.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 11:54 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
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Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Next James Bond actor?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October??
- Polymarket prices OpenAI at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? resolve?
- Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.