KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Mar 1, 2027 41%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$693.7
Liquidity
$219.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
40.0% / 47.0%
Spread
17.5%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Mar 26, 26, 12:00 AMMar 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Mar 1, 202741%
Compare venues· Before 2028
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall90% match · verified | High | 24% | — | $16.8K | $32.6K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 69% | — | $693.7 | $219.4K | 30 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
5.0%5mo
24%
+5.0%16%
-0.1%0%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$855.5K
24h Vol$16.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
- CEO statements through official channels qualify.
- Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify.
- The announcement must occur after market issuance.
- Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$694Jul 221d of dataJul 22
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If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
- CEO statements through official channels qualify.
- Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify.
- The announcement must occur after market issuance.
- Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.