KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2028 68%+10.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$26K
Liquidity
$764K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Mar 26, 26, 12:00 AMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR databaseABCCNBCThe Wall Street JournalMSNBCThe InformationNBCThe Washington PostThe New York TimesAxiosReutersCNNthe Associated PressCBSPoliticoTeslaSpaceX
- The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
- CEO statements through official channels qualify.
- Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify.
- The announcement must occur after market issuance.
- Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt54%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-8.0pt48%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-3.0pt33%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,96%
- October 31,-11.0pt79%
- October 15,-42.0pt24%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+5.0pt98%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+7.0pt96%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-2.0pt93%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Before Jan 1, 2027+6.0pt97%
- Before Oct 1, 2026-3.0pt92%
- Before Aug 8, 20261%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETWhat will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- $2.00–$2.25T+20.4pt48.1%
- $1.75–$2.00T-10.0pt35.6%
- $1.50–$1.75T-1.0pt14.4%
+5 more outcomes
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Epic Games' valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state ban or pause police use of Flock cameras before 2027?
- Which banks will take Anthropic public?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Tesla and SpaceX merge??
- Kalshi prices Before 2028 at 68% as of September 5, 2026.
- When does When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? resolve?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.