Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 94.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Apr 9, 26, 6:47 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 a completed transaction results in Aleph Alpha and Cohere operating under common corporate control (>50% voting power).
- Signed-but-unclosed agreements, minority stakes, partnerships, and asset-only deals do not count.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? resolve?
- Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 a completed transaction results in Aleph Alpha and Cohere operating under common corporate control (>50% voting power).