Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 80.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 10, 26, 11:01 AM UTCJan 5, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?
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KalshiAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), either Anthropic's or OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate exceeds the COMBINED annualized revenue run rate of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (Twitter) as of the same date.
- Annualized revenue run rate is defined as the most recent quarter's or month's revenue multiplied out to a full year (quarterly revenue times 4, or monthly revenue times 12), or the most recently reported ARR figure from the company itself or credible reporting, whichever is more current and specific.
- Musk combined total is the sum of Tesla's, SpaceX's, and X's individually computed run rates as described above.
- Sources: official company filings and earnings reports where available (Tesla and SpaceX are both public companies as of 2026 and report quarterly).
- For figures not officially disclosed (Anthropic, OpenAI, X), credible reporting from major financial or technology outlets (Bloomberg, The Information, Reuters, CNBC, or similar) is used, weighting the most recent, most specific, and most corroborated figures most heavily.
- Resolves NO if neither Anthropic's nor OpenAI's run rate exceeds the combined Musk total as of the deadline.