Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
10.5 pts (24h)ExchangeOne-OffAITechEquitiesCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability↑$900B 73%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$152.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
31.0% / 33.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-10.5 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
May 19, 26, 5:04 AMJan 1, 27, 12:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
↑$900B73%
Compare venues· ↑$900B
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 73% | — | $3.3K | $152.5K | 22 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | 9 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
OpenAI highest valuation by end of September 2026
2mo
100%
100%
100%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast11 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
- If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.
- If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
- If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3.3kJul 228d of dataJul 29
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
- If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.
- If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
- If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.