Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast≥$0.8T 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 26, 3:49 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic highest valuation by end of March 2027
Manifold MarketsSpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026
Manifold MarketsOpenAI highest valuation by end of December 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.0pt82.2%
- Yes+1.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.8M
- 24h Vol
- $297.3K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt35%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-3.0pt31%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202798%
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Jan 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $22.3K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt65%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 202750%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
KALSHIWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Jersey Mike's99%
- Shein98%
- Oura-1.0pt94%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $7.2K
- Clavicular sentenced to prison?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by which date?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Ohio State vs Texas
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices ≥$0.8T at 100% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026 resolve?
- Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.