Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
0.5 pts (24h)Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94%+0.5pt
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$16.3K
Liquidity
$86.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 7.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
271
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 4:34 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketWill Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
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Manifold MarketsHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiWill the US acquire any new territory?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.
- Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
- Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission.
- Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will the US control part of Greenland in 2026? · No 86%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — US buys Greenland in 2026? · No 98%
- Also available on PredictIt — Will the US purchase Greenland in 2026? · No 98%
- Also available on Limitless — Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No 94%