PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 8%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$42.1
Liquidity
$87.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 4:34 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes8%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 93% | +85pt | $42.1 | $87.1K | 8 minutes ago | |
 Futuur75% match · auto | Low | 86% | +78pt | $0 | $1.1K | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 97% | +89pt | — | — | 5 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt88% match · linked | — | 98% | +90pt | — | — | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Will the US purchase Greenland in 2026?
5mo
98%
2%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
US buys Greenland in 2026?
5mo
97.3%
2.7%
Community forecast152 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Futuur
Will the US control part of Greenland in 2026?
5mo
86%
14%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$30.9
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.
- Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S.
- (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
- Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$42Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.
- Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S.
- (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
- Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission.