KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 21, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 21, 2029 25.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 21, 2029 25.5%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Open interest
$86.5K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 21, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 21, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?
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KalshiWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
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PolymarketWill cyberattacks cause a major societal disruption before 2027-07?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 21, 2029
- If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 2028
- If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 2027
- If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.