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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will the US acquire any new territory?
Will the US acquire any new territory?

Will the US acquire any new territory?

0.3% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffTech6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jan 2027
Before Jan 2027 6%-0.3%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.3

Liquidity

$1.4K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

5.8% / 9.0%

Spread

55.2%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Jan 7, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jan 20276%

Rules

If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously.
  • Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously.
  • Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.