Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.4%
Forecasters
1,270
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 25, 4:02 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Frederiksen/Denmark buy or acquire part of the US?
Manifold MarketsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
LimitlessWill the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related)
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the USA pass legislation to leave NATO by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland.
- If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Acquisition Criteria:
- The market will resolve YES if Greenland becomes a US territory or if the US government or one of its constituent agencies acquires any portion of Greenland.
- This acquisition must involve government ownership of the land, not merely private or academic entities (for example, a science lab established by Harvard University does not qualify).
- Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator emphasizes that this market is about whether Greenland or a meaningful portion of it becomes part of America, not about minor acquisitions like a single building or small plot of land.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? · Before January 21, 2029 23%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%
