Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?
One-OffGeopoliticsUS PoliticsPolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.1%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 4:01 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Will the United States, by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, have taken steps that place Greenland or part of it under U.S. governing authority?
- For purposes of this market, “part of Greenland” means a defined geographic area of Greenlandic land territory together with the civilian population ordinarily residing there.
- The exercise of authority limited solely to any of the following does not, by itself, constitute being “in charge of part of Greenland”:
- Airspace, territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, or maritime navigation
- Ports, harbors, or customs facilities absent broader civil governance of the surrounding land area
- Security zones, exclusion zones, or access controls established solely for military or diplomatic purposes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029? resolve?
- Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the United States, by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, have taken steps that place Greenland or part of it under U.S. governing authority?