Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?
One-OffGeopoliticsUS PoliticsPolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:24 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 92.3%
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28
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated yesterday
StaleJan 25, 26, 4:01 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Will the United States, by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, have taken steps that place Greenland or part of it under U.S. governing authority?
- For purposes of this market, “part of Greenland” means a defined geographic area of Greenlandic land territory together with the civilian population ordinarily residing there.
- The exercise of authority limited solely to any of the following does not, by itself, constitute being “in charge of part of Greenland”:
- Airspace, territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, or maritime navigation
- Ports, harbors, or customs facilities absent broader civil governance of the surrounding land area
- Security zones, exclusion zones, or access controls established solely for military or diplomatic purposes