KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before January 21, 2029 23%
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$587.4
Liquidity
$534.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 24.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 9, 25, 6:00 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
KalshiWill the US control part of Greenland in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
KalshiWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously.
- Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Important Information: Any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 98%
- Also available on Kalshi — Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? · Before January 20, 2029 23%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US take control of any part of Greenland??
- Kalshi prices Before January 21, 2029 at 23% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? resolve?
- Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless.