KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore January 21, 2029 23%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$29.6K
Liquidity
$546.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 29.0%
Spread
11.5%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jan 9, 25, 6:00 PMJan 21, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before January 21, 202923%
Compare venues· Before January 21, 2029
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · linked | High | 96% | — | $16.3K | $236.4K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| Kalshi82% match · linked | High | 16% | — | $223.9 | $816.4K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 23% | — | $29.6K | $546.5K | 14 minutes ago | |
 Limitless82% match · linked | Low | 95% | — | $0 | $0 | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 94% | — | — | — | 5 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · verified | — | 95% | — | — | — | 38 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 91% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
96%
4%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$35.1M
24h Vol$16.3K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
5mo
16%
6%
0%
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5M
24h Vol$223.9
KALSHIAlso available on Limitless
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.6%
5.5%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$25.1K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
2y
91%
9%
Community forecast1,259 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.1%
5.9%
Community forecast13 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term?
2y
95.3%
4.7%
Community forecast41 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously.
- Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k95.4%POLYMARKETWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — NoChasingPaper7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — NoChasingPaper7d ago$1.1k93.3%KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago
KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago$1.5k95.4%POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d ago
POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d agoVolume trend
$29.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
$1K$0 / No Acquisition: 82%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously.
- Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.