KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:48 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before January 21, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before January 21, 2029 16.5%
Before January 21, 2029 16.5%Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$340.5
Open interest
$475.3K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before January 21, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 9, 25, 6:00 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before January 21, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
KalshiWill Vladimir Putin claim to have taken control of any part of Alaska during Trump’s presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill the US control part of Greenland in 2026?
FutuurDoes the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will the US take a stake in this year?
KalshiRules
If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Rules for each outcome
- Before January 21, 2029
- If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Kalshi — Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? · Before January 20, 2029 13%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%
