Will Vladimir Putin claim to have taken control of any part of Alaska during Trump’s presidential term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 26, 12:08 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time during Donald Trump’s presidential term (beginning January 20, 2025, and ending January 20, 2029, unless the term ends earlier or later due to impeachment, resignation, death, emergency extension, or other constitutional or extraordinary reasons), Putin, in his official capacity, states or declares that he has acquired sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory within the U.S. state of Alaska, including via force, purchase, referendum or Russian court decision.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
- Only explicit official claims or declarations that unambiguously assert sovereignty or control qualify.
- Speculation, unofficial commentary, third-party analysis, or ambiguous rhetoric does not qualify.
- The sole resolution sources will be Russian official state media and official Kremlin communications (e.g., presidential decrees, speeches, or state news agencies).
- No confirmation or recognition by the United States or international bodies is required.
