PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 4%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$16.3K
Liquidity
$238.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.3% / 4.4%
Spread
2.3%
Tight spread7d Change
-0.1%
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 12:58 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 96% | +92pt | $16.3K | $238.1K | 19 minutes ago | |
 KalshiMost active82% match · linked | High | 23% | +19pt | $29.6K | $546.5K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| Kalshi82% match · linked | High | 16% | +12pt | $245.1 | $816.4K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless94% match · auto | Low | 95% | +91pt | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets93% match · auto | — | 94% | +90pt | — | — | 5 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 95% | +91pt | — | — | 38 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · linked | — | 91% | +87pt | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.6%
5.5%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$25.1K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.1%
5.9%
Community forecast13 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
2y
91%
9%
Community forecast1,259 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
2y
23%
+0.5%6%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$29.6K
KALSHIAlso available on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
0.3%5mo
16%
-0.3%6%
0%
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5M
24h Vol$245.1
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term?
2y
95.3%
4.7%
Community forecast41 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
- An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur.
- Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k95.4%POLYMARKETNoChasingPaper7d ago
POLYMARKETNoChasingPaper7d ago$1.1k93.3%KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago
KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago$1.5k95.4%POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d ago
POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d agoVolume trend
$16.3kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
- An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur.
- Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.