Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
2.0% (24h)AIYearlyPoliticsUS PoliticsBusiness & Corporate5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAnthropic 20%-2.0%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$289.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 24.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Dec 10, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic20%
Compare venues· GlobalFoundries
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 71% | 0pt | $2.9K | $289.4K | 26 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket62% match · verified | Medium | 78% | +7pt | $1.9K | $25.5K | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
4.5%5mo
+0.3%78%
+1.5%72%
+0.1%68%
+17 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$163.4K
24h Vol$1.9K
POLYMARKETRules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns TikTok US or ByteDance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests.
- This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity.
- Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold.
- Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings.
- Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.9kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns TikTok US or ByteDance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests.
- This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity.
- Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold.
- Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings.
- Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes.