Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUSA Rare Earth 54.8%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 25, 12:01 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
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Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWhich companies will the US take a stake in?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" for any company in which the United States Federal Government, under the Trump administration, acquires a direct equity stake.
- A "direct equity stake" is defined as the US Federal Government owning shares of the company's stock, resulting from an investment, bailout, or other financial transaction that confers ownership.
- The stake must be publicly disclosed through official government channels (e.g., Treasury Department announcements, SEC filings) or widely reported by reputable financial news organizations (e.g., The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters).
- The market will resolve "No" for any company that does not meet this criterion by January 20th, 2029.
- ("Trump administration" colloquially refers to the 47th administration.)
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $149K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt39%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+13.0pt37%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-8.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.9%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.8%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-3.1pt16.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.4K
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in??
- Manifold Markets prices USA Rare Earth at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in? resolve?
- Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria