KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
$40 trillion 100%+0.4ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$199.9
Liquidity
$39.2K
High liquiditySpread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Nov 12, 24, 3:00 PM UTCMar 31, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US national debt surpass 42 trillion during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt before 2027?
PolymarketWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRules
If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 42.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt increases to 45 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 47.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt increases to 50 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 52.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $829.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $343.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt14%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Steel Across America?
- $LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration?
- Kalshi prices $40 trillion at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration resolve?
- Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2029.
- How is Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.