Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
YearlyMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomy1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 23, 11:48 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExPeak US National Debt before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US National Debt exceed $39 Trillion by the end of FY 2026?
ForecastExWill the US National Debt exceed $40 Trillion by the end of FY 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves Yes if the "US National Debt" figure at https://www.usdebtclock.org/ is above $40 trillion.
- Resolves No if this doesn't happen by the end of 2027
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million+1.0pt98%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $146.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-18.0pt30%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes-2.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $18.6K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-31.0pt34%
- At least ¥74,000-39.0pt28%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.8K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
- Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
- What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- Czech National Bank rate decision in September
- How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, 2026
- How high will the S&P get this year?
- What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
- How low will the S&P get this year?
- Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount in 2027
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if the "US National Debt" figure at https://www.usdebtclock.org/ is above $40 trillion.