Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
YearlyMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomy1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:09 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 23, 11:48 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiWill the US National Debt exceed $40 Trillion by the end of FY 2027?
ForecastExWill the US National Debt exceed $45 Trillion by the end of FY 2027?
ForecastExWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRules
Resolves Yes if the "US National Debt" figure at https://www.usdebtclock.org/ is above $40 trillion.
- Resolves No if this doesn't happen by the end of 2027