KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 88%
Market quality
86 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$10K
Liquidity
$455.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
87.0% / 88.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?
KalshiHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
KalshiHow high will the S&P get this year?
KalshiWill Canva’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Polymarket2nd largest company end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6845.50, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:For example, Google Finance
- The market will close on December 31, 2026.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
- Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.
- See the rules for more information.
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA-1.0pt79%
- Apple-0.6pt13%
- Alphabet7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $105.9K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9916.2%
- 8,000 to 8,199.99+1.0pt15.2%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9910.5%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,070 or above90%
- 29,080 or above90%
- 29,090 or above90%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36.4K
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 9?
- Down79%
- Up21%
- Total Vol
- $32.1K
- 24h Vol
- $31.9K
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt17.5%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-1.0pt6.8%
- 31,000 to 31,499.99+1.0pt6.8%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.25–$2.5T+8.0pt26.2%
- $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt21.4%
- $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt18.4%
+7 more outcomes
- S&P price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 9?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- S&P price on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the S&P finish positive this year??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 88% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the S&P finish positive this year? resolve?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the S&P finish positive this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6845.50, then the market resolves to Yes.