KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability7,800 to 7,999.99 12%-1.0%Leader of 27 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.6K
Liquidity
$3.7M
High liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
8.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 3:00 PMDec 31, 26, 9:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
7,800 to 7,999.9912%
Compare venues· 7,800 to 7,999.99
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 12% | — | $10.6K | $3.7M | 19 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets83% match · verified | — | 97% | — | — | — | 3 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
S&P 500 closing price on Dec 31 2026
5mo
97%
+0.5%93.5%
92%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close on December 31, 2026.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
- Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.
- See the rules for more information.
- If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 4000-4199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.0k98.0%KALSHI6,800 to 6,999.99 — No6d ago
KALSHI6,800 to 6,999.99 — No6d agoVolume trend
$10.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close on December 31, 2026.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
- Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.
- See the rules for more information.
- If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 4000-4199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.