Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast5,500.00 or higher? 97%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 11:40 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
5,500.00 or higher?97%
Compare venues· 5,500.00 or higher?
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall83% match · verified | Medium | 12% | — | $10.6K | $3.7M | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 97% | — | — | — | 3 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
S&P close price end of 2026?
1.0%5mo
-1.0%12%
12%
+1.0%12%
+24 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5.1M
24h Vol$10.6K
KALSHIRules
Resolves according to Google finance.
- Resolves according to s&p500 close price on Dec 31 2026.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.0k98.0%KALSHI6,800 to 6,999.99 — No6d ago
KALSHI6,800 to 6,999.99 — No6d agoVolume trend
$14Jul 810d of dataJul 23
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POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 27?
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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Resolves according to Google finance.
- Resolves according to s&p500 close price on Dec 31 2026.