Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.2%
Forecasters
144
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 11:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
KalshiWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US control part of Greenland in 2026?
FutuurWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
LimitlessWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiWill Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, the United States acquires sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory in Greenland through a binding legal instrument (e.g., treaty, enacted legislation, or executive action), including via force.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
- Only binding actions that unambiguously transfer sovereignty or establish primary/exclusive U.S. jurisdiction qualify, even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
- Non-binding statements, negotiations, MOUs, basing/access agreements, SOFA/COFA-type arrangements, leases, or commercial concessions do not qualify.
- Any U.S. rights or control existing at market creation (Jan 7, 2026, 3:11 PT) will not count.
- The primary resolution source will be official statements or legal instruments from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will the US control part of Greenland in 2026? · No 90%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No 97%
- Also available on PredictIt — Will the US purchase Greenland in 2026? · No 98%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — US buys Greenland in 2026? · No 98%
- Also available on Limitless — Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes 50%
