What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related)
US PoliticsGeopoliticsPoliticsRussia / Ukraine3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMusk becoming the first trillionaire 99%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 11:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump wins, will the USA pass legislation to leave NATO by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsPROP BET - What will happen in Trump's attempt to fire Fed Reserve Gov Lisa Cook? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsIf Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+0.3pt100%
- $25M+0.5pt100%
- $50M+1.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.7M
- 24h Vol
- $491.4K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt50.4%
- October 31-3.0pt27.8%
- September 30+1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Democrat+16.0pt82%
- Communist / Communism+17.0pt79%
- MAGA / Make America Great Again+9.0pt77%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.6pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt14%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHITX-15 House winner?
- Bobby Pulido+6.0pt59.2%
- Monica De La Cruz-4.0pt40.8%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $252.7K
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- What will Trump say this week?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will Donald Trump issue a public apology?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related)?
- Manifold Markets prices Musk becoming the first trillionaire at 99% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related) resolve?
- What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.