If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineElection23dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.5%
Forecasters
615
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Mar 10, 24, 5:16 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
- This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
- This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios).
- The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.
- If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.
