Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2028-07-01 70.9%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
188
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jun 8, 24, 9:11 PM UTCJan 16, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.
- As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.
- This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia.
- Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire.
- The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens:
- Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera)
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-1.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt68%
- September 11-2.5pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $434.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80%
- Yes-4.5pt20%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $307.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+4.2pt48.4%
- October 31+1.0pt27.9%
- September 30+2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 202931%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt26%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-2.0pt9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2028-07-01 at 71% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? resolve?
- When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? is scheduled to resolve on January 16, 2027.
- How is When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.