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When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

Current community forecast

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-01-01 0%

Leader of 8 outcomes

Forecasters

180

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Stale

Jun 8, 24, 9:11 PMJan 16, 27, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-01-01

0%

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Before 2026-07-012%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.

As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.
This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia.
Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire.
The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens:
Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera)

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Rules

The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.

As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.
This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia.
Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire.
The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens:
Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera)