Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2030-01-01 75.4%Leader of 11 outcomes
Before 2030-01-01 75.4%Forecasters
199
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 24, 9:11 PM UTCJan 16, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.
- As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.
- This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia.
- Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire.
- The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens:
- Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera)