Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.2%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 23, 26, 3:23 AM UTCNov 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
Zelenskyy publicly offered a reciprocal energy truce from New York on 2026-09-22: Ukraine stops striking Russian oil-refining facilities if Russia stops striking Ukraine's energy system, critical infrastructure and food exports.
- President Trump then said the two sides had agreed to stop hitting each other's energy infrastructure - but Kyiv's delegation said it had not been informed of any deal, and Russia fired roughly 200 drones at Ukrainian energy and port facilities.
- One party to this supposed agreement has not spoken for itself.
- This market asks whether Russia does.
- Resolves YES if, at any time between market creation and 2026-11-20 23:59 UTC, the Russian government states publicly that Russia has agreed to, or is entering, a halt or moratorium on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure as part of a reciprocal or mutual arrangement.
- The statement must come from President Putin, the Kremlin press secretary, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or the Russian Ministry of Defence, and must be reported by Reuters or the Associated Press.
