[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 10:12 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict? [METACULUS]
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PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRules
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description:
- This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026.
- The ceasefire must either
- last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
- be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? resolve?
- [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.