Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 16, 25, 9:06 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
reference UN or Wikipedia for resolution
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026 at least one of the following is true:
- The UN Treaty Collection (UNTS) lists a bilateral instrument between Ukraine and the Russian Federation that explicitly ends the armed conflict (e.g., “peace treaty,” “peace agreement,” or an armistice/cessation of hostilities that states it ends the war) and shows it entered into force on or before the deadline.
- The effective “entry into force” date controls, even if UNTS posts it later.
- Primary source: UN Treaty Collection/UNTS search.