Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 69.1%
No 69.1%Forecasters
657
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jan 10, 23, 7:15 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Ukrainian victory" or "Ukrainian victory with territorial losses".
- Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox.
- If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution.
- If the "result" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.