Will Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 92%
No 92%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
6
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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FutuurRules
This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will control Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as of December 31, 2026.
- For this market, control means effective military or legally recognized control preventing Ukraine from accessing these seas.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Ukrainian government statements or widely recognized international reporting confirming such control.
- If Russia effectively controls Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If Russia controls only part of Ukraine’s sea access, Futuur may use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective control.