Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.5%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 25, 1:00 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if the Russian Federation has de facto control of at least 95.00% of the Donbass region at the close date.
- This market will resolve NO if the Russian Federation has de facto control of less than 95.00% of the Donbass region at the close date.
- Resolution sources
- Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict reach a formal conclusion by the close date, the resolution of this market will be informed by a consensus of media reports, if one exists.
- If the conflict is ongoing at the close date, or the extent of Russia’s territorial control is uncertain, the market will resolve according to estimates obtained from the following sources:
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026? resolve?
- Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria