Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.4%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 6, 26, 10:55 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhen will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41144) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026.
- The ceasefire must either
- last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
- be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
- If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as Yes.