Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 87.3%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 24, 1:42 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.
- It is also part of the republican party platform^2.
- If Trump is elected, will there be no tax on tips by 1st Jan 2028? It doesn't have to be 100% no tax ever paid on any tip but I will resolve according to my wisdom.
- Something like this heuristic: if I go to America to randomish place, and do my normal stuff and pay tips, will at least 70% of instances go lawfully untaxed.
- If Trump is not elected, resolves N/A. 1. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plan-end-taxes-tips-skepticism-1235062544/ 2. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? resolve?
- If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.