Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.9%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 23, 2:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
India initially tried to build a military base in Seychelles on Assumption Island in 2018, but was rejected by Seychelles parliament.
- They instead built a military base on Mauritius's Agalega Island.
- However, China has been building its own military base in Madagascar and India's military base in Mauritius is farther from the Mozambique Channel.
- India may decide to build another military base in the southwestern Indian ocean to counter China's growing influence in the region.
- Question resolves YES if India starts to build a military base in a country in eastern Africa before the end of 2026, with the military base near the Indian ocean.
- Listening posts/radar installations/berthing rights do not count, it has to be a full military base.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026? resolve?
- Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: India initially tried to build a military base in Seychelles on Assumption Island in 2018, but was rejected by Seychelles parliament.