Will Iran strike US military base at least once before November?
One-OffGeopoliticsPoliticsMiddle East5d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 58%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 26, 1:41 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Iran conducts at least one direct military strike against a U.S. military base between September 12, 2026, and November 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Definition of "Direct Military Strike": The attack must involve offensive military action (e.g., missiles, drones, artillery, or naval/ground forces) directly launched or commanded by official Iranian state forces (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Islamic Republic of Iran Army).
- Proxy Attacks: Attacks conducted solely by regional proxy groups (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah, or the Islamic Resistance in Iraq) will NOT count for a YES resolution unless official U.S. government/military statements or major credible news outlets directly attribute the launch or command of the specific attack to Iranian state forces.
- Definition of "U.S. Military Base": Any active military facility, airfield, outpost, or base officially hosting or operated by U.S. armed forces (e.g., facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, or Syria).