US military draft authorized in 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsUS PoliticsMiddle East5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 96%
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1
Liquidity
$24.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.9% / 4.7%
Spread
0.8 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Mar 13, 26, 5:26 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Volume trend
$1Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.