Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle EastGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 11:09 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
I hate that I'm even making this market
- Resolution Criteria
- For a draft to return, Congress would need to pass new legislation to amend the Military Selective Service Act.
- This market resolves YES if legislation authorizing a military draft is signed into law during Trump's second term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029).
- Resolution will be determined by checking the status of draft authorization legislation on official government sources including Congress.gov and the Federal Register.
- The market resolves NO if Trump's term ends without such legislation being enacted.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress? resolve?
- Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I hate that I'm even making this market