Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle EastGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 11:09 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kim Jong Un visit the United States during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a general strike in the United States before Trump's second term ends?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Manifold MarketsUS military draft authorized in 2026?
PolymarketHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRules
I hate that I'm even making this market
- Resolution Criteria
- For a draft to return, Congress would need to pass new legislation to amend the Military Selective Service Act.
- This market resolves YES if legislation authorizing a military draft is signed into law during Trump's second term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029).
- Resolution will be determined by checking the status of draft authorization legislation on official government sources including Congress.gov and the Federal Register.
- The market resolves NO if Trump's term ends without such legislation being enacted.