How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Between 400 and 449 · —
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Stored price
Between 400 and 449 20.5%Leader of 12 outcomes
Between 400 and 449 20.5%Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$240
Open interest
$37.4K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Between 400 and 449Spread
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Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 24, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Between 400 and 449
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the President signs between 400 and 449 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Federal Register
- An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to, using ET timezone. Classified Executive Orders count if acknowledged by number. Executive Orders that are later revoked still count for the period they were signed. The Federal Register is the primary source; alternative sources are used only if the Federal Register explicitly states data is incomplete.
Rules for each outcome
- Between 400 and 449
- If the President signs between 400 and 449 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 350 and 399
- If the President signs between 350 and 399 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 450 and 499
- If the President signs between 450 and 499 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 500 and 549
- If the President signs between 500 and 549 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 300
- If the President signs below 300 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 550 and 599
- If the President signs between 550 and 599 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 300 and 349
- If the President signs between 300 and 349 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 600 and 649
- If the President signs between 600 and 649 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 650 and 699
- If the President signs between 650 and 699 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 700 and 749
- If the President signs between 700 and 749 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Between 750 and 800
- If the President signs between 750 and 800 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 800
- If the President signs above 800 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
