Will the US military control at least ten percent of Iran by area at any point during 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 93%
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49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 51 minutes ago
LaggingApr 2, 26, 1:59 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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