Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 26, 3:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia shoot down a crewed NATO military aircraft in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketWill an F-22 Raptor shoot down a manned military aircraft before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran strike US military base at least once before November?
Manifold MarketsUS Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS military draft authorized in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if there is public confirmation from U.S. military officials, credible news sources, or official government statements that U.S. military aircraft conducted an overflight of Cuban airspace at any point during 2026.
- The overflight must be explicitly confirmed as occurring over Cuban territory (not international airspace).
- Resolution sources may include official Department of Defense statements, congressional testimony, major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.), or declassified government documents.
- On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military strike on Venezuela, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, which involved bombing infrastructure across northern Venezuela to suppress air defenses.
- Trump indicated that Cuban forces were involved in the operation, and the government of Cuba reported that 32 Cubans were killed in Venezuela, all members of armed forces and intelligence services.
