Will Russia shoot down a crewed NATO military aircraft in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.8%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 26, 4:03 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Intentional or otherwise.
- Resolves on confirmation by NATO