Will the US military strike Houthi targets in Yemen before November 12, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East14d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 12, 26, 9:10 AM UTCNov 12, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM US Eastern, US military forces carry out at least one offensive strike (airstrike, cruise missile, drone strike or naval fire) on a Houthi target located in Yemen: on Yemeni land or in Yemeni territorial waters.
- Evidence: an official US statement (Pentagon, CENTCOM or the White House) saying US forces struck Houthi targets in Yemen, OR at least two of Reuters, AP, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post reporting it as a US strike.
- Does NOT count:
- Intelligence, targeting, refueling or logistics support for Saudi or other non-US strikes
- Shooting down Houthi missiles or drones in flight, or defensive fire at boats outside Yemeni territorial waters
- Strikes by Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE or the UK alone
