Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70%
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36
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 27, 26, 11:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote in a memo to staff that he will draw the same red lines that sparked a high-stakes fight between rival Anthropic and the Pentagon: no AI for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons. https://www.axios.com/2026/02/27/altman-openai-anthropic-pentagon
- At the same time, OpenAI is negotiating with the US military over the Pentagon using its AI technology https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-sam-altman-calls-for-de-escalation-in-anthropic-showdown-with-hegseth-03ecbac8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdejrtpmzkjHz-eBOWb5ESy2Sxu7XwnyawFw1yLjO_6y130nY_iPPQ8wvL6vco%3D&gaa_ts=69a22844&gaa_sig=s-Frj0YpTlNHMFj7aEOa39UQ7iMJ7bXC8glJd29-NW3gsdkZlZUWHJvpsBokoAOB6qsRt9CMpYJb2zodxnk-WA%3D%3D
- If OpenAI sticks to both elements of its commitment, of not permitting usage of its AI for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons by the US military, by the end of 2026, this will resolve to Yes.
- Note that if OpenAI chooses not to strike a deal with the US military, this will still resolve to Yes, because presumably the reason for not making the deal are the same red lines as for Anthropic.
- Note that if they do strike a deal and the military somehow does use OpenAI's tools for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons without OpenAI's explicit approval, such as through subterfuge, fudging definitions, or the Defense Procurement Act, this still resolves to Yes.
- The No condition has to be about OpenAI explicitly not sticking voluntarily to either elements of its commitment.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote in a memo to staff that he will draw the same red lines that sparked a high-stakes fight between rival Anthropic and the Pentagon: no AI for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons. https://www.axios.com/2026/02/27/altman-openai-anthropic-pentagon