What are the current odds for SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94.3% as of October 28, 2026.

When does SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model? resolve?

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will any state-of-the-art (SOTA) general-purpose AI system at the end of 2026 be a reasoning model?

AIOne-Off2mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 94.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 11, 25, 1:16 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Will any state-of-the-art (SOTA) general-purpose AI system at the end of 2026 be a reasoning model?

Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve YES if, on December 31, 2026, any AI system widely considered SOTA meets all of the following criteria for a "reasoning model":
It is a Language Model - The system must be able to input and output language.
As an example of what would not count: AlphaGo
It uses inference-time compute - The system must be capable of using more than a single forward pass before giving its final output, with the ability to scale inference compute for better performance