KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$55.4
Liquidity
$2.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 6.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 10, 26, 11:20 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWill Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Manifold MarketsIs Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
If the CEO of Anthropic leaves before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bloomberg
- The CEO must actually leave their position for the market to resolve as Yes, rather than merely announcing it.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year??
- Kalshi prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year? resolve?
- Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the CEO of Anthropic leaves before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.