Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.7%
Forecasters
104
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Mar 11, 26, 8:32 PM UTCMar 12, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820
- This market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:
- The attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC.
- Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.
- The attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems.
- The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.
