Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 9:23 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
African Swine Fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease fatal to domestic and wild swine.
- It has never been detected in the United States, though it has spread to over 70 countries, including the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
- This market resolves YES if all of the following are met before the close date:
- USDA APHIS officially announces a confirmed ASF detection in any animal (domestic pig, feral/wild swine, or any other species) physically located within the 50 US states, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands
- Confirmation uses standard APHIS diagnostic protocol (PCR or virus isolation at a National Animal Health Laboratory Network lab)
- The announcement is published on the APHIS website (aphis.usda.gov) or via official USDA press release
