Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 9:23 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran strike US soil this year?
Manifold MarketsVaccination program for Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) in a Nordic Country before Christmas Eve 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketRules
African Swine Fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease fatal to domestic and wild swine.
- It has never been detected in the United States, though it has spread to over 70 countries, including the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
- This market resolves YES if all of the following are met before the close date:
- USDA APHIS officially announces a confirmed ASF detection in any animal (domestic pig, feral/wild swine, or any other species) physically located within the 50 US states, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands
- Confirmation uses standard APHIS diagnostic protocol (PCR or virus isolation at a National Animal Health Laboratory Network lab)
- The announcement is published on the APHIS website (aphis.usda.gov) or via official USDA press release
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026 resolve?
- Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: African Swine Fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease fatal to domestic and wild swine.